Where to find the best eCommerce Delivery Trends
I thought you might be interested in seeing the big-data eCommerce trends for the 2015 Christmas Peak. The best resources that I have found are the PCA Predict - Big Data Labs and the Metapack Carrier Heat Map. The PCA information is available in real time and is based on the eCommerce orders actually being placed. It uses the "post-coding/address checking" transaction at time of placing the order. The Metapack data measures Carrier performance on a regional basis but only weekly and after the event.
One caveat on both "big data" sources is the share of the market held by PCA and Metapack. It would be nice to know their overall market share !
I dont think these resources are that well well known - but I have been using them as my "Dashboard" over the last few weeks to see how orders are being placed, how carriers are performing and how this year compares with last year. I have also being test buying to see how shipping and delivery information is being provided to the consumer (who of course is the paying customer)
I am quite disappointed that these "big data" resources are still exactly the same as they were last year. It is really surprising that the Metapack data is not real time and because of the long time delay there must be a suspicion of after the fact manipulation. These big data resources are good but they do need to be improved if the eCommerce delivery industry is to grow and be trusted. The consumer really requires real-time and independent analytics if they are to fully trust the eCommerce delivery industry
In terms of demand this year eCommerce volumes are up - but not as dramatically as some predicted. The Black Friday and Cyber Monday peaks are very obvious on the PCA graph but the actual fulfilment of these orders as seen on the Metapack data shows that there is few days delay in getting all the orders out of the warehouses. Comparing the placing of the orders with their fulfilment is really interesting.
True Omni-Channel eCommerce implies a distributed warehousing model - it is difficult to see the effect in these big data results but the rollout of the new regional Amazon warehouses could be significantly improving the carrier heat map results. There is quite a bit of red for some carriers in Scotland and Northern Ireland which could be caused by some companies not using the distributed warehousing model.
Last year was characterised by the Yodel Black Friday problems and the CityLink failure - but this year so far these mega issues seem to have been resolved and the industry is starting to be seen as far more professional. I have been watching the parcel tracking performance of Parcelforce and DPD very closely. The predictive and interactive nature of the DPD offer is the best that I have seen and in my opinion sets the benchmark for the industry. The Parcelforce offer is now more reliable but is still focused "after the event"
Very few eCommerce retailers are offering what I would call real Omni-Channel delivery choice options and I doubt whether carriers "system logic" and "tracking systems" could even cope with this at the moment. Hopefully this is something that the industry will address this year. The new smart technology which is now in the hands of consumers will drive this change and carriers will have to adapt (or fail)
written by
Richard Wishart
Enterprise Architect and eCommerce Expert
12 Dec 15
